As September approaches and the Atlantic hurricane season nears its peak, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reevaluated its earlier seasonal predictions.
The outlook for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains unchanged. On Aug. 6, forecasters updated the projected storm count for the 2026 season, predicting seven to 13 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, NOAA predicts two to six could intensify into hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater, and zero to two could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. The forecast covers the entire season, from June 1 through Nov. 30, and includes the two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, that have already formed.
According to NOAA, forecasters predict a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of above-normal activity.
A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
To date, the 2026 season’s two tropical storms have brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf Coast.
El Niño typically increases wind shear, making it more difficult for storms to form or intensify. NOAA reports that other factors contributing to the below-normal outlook include “near-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and a neutral West African monsoon.”
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
While El Niño may suppress activity in the Atlantic, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific. There have already been seven named storms and two hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, including one major hurricane. The Eastern Pacific outlook is unchanged, with above-average activity expected and 15 to 22 named storms. The Central Pacific basin is also expected to have an above-normal season, with five to 13 named storms and tropical depressions.
